World Junior Championship update

Denmark

            This tournament is all about surprises. Let’s start with Denmark. Denmark will make the knock out rounds with one game left in the preliminary rounds. Denmark had never beaten Finland nor Czech before in this tournament. Denmark beat them both. Denmark has made the final 8 for 3 years in a row. They were beating Swiss 3-0 and 4-1 but eventually lost. Denmark has shown they are a legitimate player now in the Juniors. The Big 5 will take note.

Finland

It is the first time that a defending World Junior Champion has to play in the relegation round. Since the first World Junior Championship in 1977 Finland has never been ranked worse than 7th. The only times Finland didn’t have a top-8 ranking in an IIHF event was with the men’s national team in the World Championships in 1939 and 1955. Finland also changes its coach…yikes.!

The Big 5

            Well 3 of the big 5 are undefeated at this point. Sweden won Group A and will play Czech in their final game. Canada and the USA are also undefeated and will play each other today at 3:30pm. (15:30 GMT). Russia was unfortunately placed in with USA and Canada and don’t forget the tournament is in North America. Finland had a miserable tournament and will have to play in the regulation game.     

The USA

            The USA play like an NHL team with the ability to cycle the puck down low. They also look sharp and fast out of the break out with good mobile defense. The USA also rolls out 4 lines so they can play a fast pace game the whole tournament. There is not one line the other team can concentrate on to shut down. The biggest problem is the forwards bringing the puck back to the blue line and freezing their own defensemen. This allows a defender to take on 2 usa players and still be in position. This was extremely dangerous against the better teams and they better correct this mistake
.

Canada

            They were the favorites going into the tournament and remain the favorites. They have steam rolled their opponents scoring 20 goals while only giving up 5 against. They are led by Dylan Strome, Tylor Raddysh and Mathew Barzal. This team is not folding under pressure but rather thriving off it. This might change in the knockout rounds but all indications is Canada is rolling.

Who will lead the USA in the Junior competition.

Well 3 captains have been picked. 



Captain

    Luke Kunin (#9-center picture) is a 6-0 center from the U of Wisconsin. He was the pick after Charlie McAvoy in the 2016 draft. As a freshman he scored 19 goals and had 13 assists. This year he has about a point per game with 11 goals (team high)and 6 assists in 16 games played (17 PTS). He was the captain of USA U-18 gold metal team in 2015. He makes other better because of the desire and team first attitude.

Alternative Captains

     Collin White (#19) (pictured on the left) is a 6-0 fast skating forward for Boston College. He is a replica of Luke Kunin with skating and point production. As a freshman he was the second best point getter, with 19 goals and 24 assists for Boston College. This year as a sophomore he leads the team with shots on goal and has 10 goals (team high) and 7 assist (17 PTS),  good enough for 3rd on team. Team USA will need him to lead my example.

   Charlie McAvoy (#25) (pictured on right) is also a sophomore but plays for Boston University and team USA as a defenseman. He is 6-1 and weighs in at 211 lbs. This made him Boston Bruins first round pick this year. He is a strong skater and was BU's leading point getter as a defenseman last year. This year he has 2 goals and 11 assist leading all BU defensemen this year. It will not be his checking or rushes that stand out but his calmness on the puck and the ability to transition the puck to his forwards (passing or skating it out of the defensive zone.


Other to watch:

Jack Rosolvic is a 6-1 forward who also can put the puck in the net. Last year as a freshman for the University of Miami (Ohio) he scored 10 goals and 16 assist. This year he took bigger and better competition and jumped to the AHL's Manitoba Moose. In 25 games he has 8 goals and 11 assist
which leads the team. If Rosolvic can get it done the the AHL...I see him being productive in this tournament.

    The main identity of this team however is the opposite of what i am writing. Head Coach Bob  Motzko has been preaching the team game. Skate for your line mate, don't be the all star, play for the team and not individual glory. Every one on this team can skate, it will be the top 9 forwards who don't make the mistakes that will see the ice minutes in the knockout rounds. 

Look for a Hockey East Power Play influence

Look for Charlie McAvoy D (Boston University), Clayton Keller (Boston University), Kieffer Bellows (Boston University),Tage Thompson (U-Conn) and Collin White (Boston College). Well that is the PP unite USA is working with so far. 

Tage Thompson is deadly close to the net. 

Tage Thompson  has enormous size at 6-5 and can put the puck in the net. As a freshman for UConn he has 14 goals and 18 assists. This year as a sophomore he has 12 goals and 8 assists (20 PTS) out pointing our captains. He likes sitting at top left face off circle and one timing a very hard accurate shot on the power play. He has great hand and lifts he head up immediately once puck is on his stick. He is calm in front of net and his body is hard to move once it is there. 

Kieffer Bellows is the shifty crafty skater at 5-10 who has 7 goals and 8 assist this year at BU.  

Upcoming International Events of 2017

2017 Upcoming International Events

2017		Host
Dec 26- Jan 5th	IIHF World Championship	Montreal/Toronto
January 17-28	Central American Cup	Panama
Feb, 6th Mar 6th	American Rugby Championship	Home /Away
Feb 17th Mar 5th	CONCACAF U-20 Championship	Costa Rica
March 24th & 28th	USMNT v Honduras, USMNT @ Panama	USA/ Panama
April 13th-23th	IIHF World U18 Championship	Slovakia
April 21st –May 7th	CONCACAF U-17  Championship	Panama
May 18th -24th	Caribbean Cup Final  4	USA
May 20th – June 11	FIFA U-20 World Cup South Korea	South Korea
June 8th & 11th	USMNT v. Trinidad & T;  USMNT @ Mexico	Home/away
June, July	2019 Rugby Qualification USA v Canada	Home/Away
July 9th -30th	CONCACAF Gold Cup 2017	USA
Aug 29th Sept 10th	World Rugby U-20 Trophy	Uruguay
Sept 1st &   5th	USMNT vs Costa Rica, USMNT @ Honduras	Home/Away
Oct 6th & 10th	USMNT v. Panama;    USMNT @ Trinidad & Tobago	Home/Away
Oct 8th -16	World Rugby Americas –Pacific Challenge
Oct 26th Dec 2nd	Rugby League World Cup	Aust,  Z & P- NG

            The year starts off with Juniors playing in Montreal and Toronto. This is probably my favorite year that comes every 4 years as an USA fan. The biggest “event” is the USA playing in the Hex and these 8 games are scattered throughout the year. Then there is the CONCACAF Gold Cup in the middle of summer that the USA usually plays well in and the fans are great to support the USMNT. There are other smaller events that scatter the year and we wrap thing up with and the Rugby League World Cup “down under” in Australia.

January         
                                                                                                                                      
    As always the World Juniors (U-20Hockey) tournament starts the year off with a bang. This is always a great fun tournament to watch that starts off the day after Christmas. This year’s tournament will be held the Meca hot bed of hockey, Toronto and Montreal. Canada is usually the team to beat however Finland won last year’s Championship and it seems now any one of the Big 5 can win this exciting tournament. This tournament we see the future NHL starts emerge like last year’s Austin Mathews (F) and Zach Werenski (D). It doesn’t matter where you finish in the group state, it’s the knock out rounds that count here.

           

            The 2017 Central American Cup in also in January but does not have an American team. However the 4 top teams will qualify for the 2017 Gold Cup. Costa Rica has dominated this tournament playing in the Championship game 12 out of the 13 years of its existence. The Tico’s have won 8 of the 12 title games they are your current Champion. Costa Rica is again the nation to beat here. I would like to see this tournament add Canada to make 8 nations and go back to the knock out games. The controversy is that neither Nicaragua nor Belize has hosted this regional tournament and both are trying to grow the sport.

February

            February is a brutally cold month but now we have The American Rugby Championship to watch. This starts the day after the Super bowl so it is nice timing. It runs February 6^th to March 6^th. Rugby is the fastest growing sport in America and the World right now. I would like to see the USA Eagles emerge with a championship this year which is very possible. Argentina XV has won 6 out of the 6 past tournaments and they are the nation to beat as always. Argentina is so good in Rugby they only sent their B team to compete. The top team now plays in the Rugby Championship against New Zealand, Australia and South Africa. This will be the second year in the current format for home/away games and with 6 nations.  I am hoping the USA Eagles get better with every game.  

            CONCACAF U-20 Championship will also be played in February but in the warm tropical air of Costa Rica. Mexico has won 3 of the last 4 Championships and again is the favorite to win. There will be 12 teams in 2 groups. The top  team from each group will play for the Championship. This format gives every participant 5 group games and the top 6 nations an extra play-off game. The USA has a plethora of U-20 players scattered in both North America and Europe. Just like the World Juniors of hockey we are hoping a few potential soccer stars emerge from this tournament as well.  I expect the USA to claim one of the top 4 qualifying slots in this tournament. 4 teams will qualify for the 2017 U-20 World Cup in South Korea, later this same year.

March             USMNT v Honduras & USMNT @ Panama

April

            April 13^th – 23^rd is the IIHF World U-18 Hockey Championship in Slovakia. This tournament is not nearly as exciting as the U-20 Championship however the USA has dominated this tournament. The USA has won 9 Championship compared to 3 for Canada, 3 for Russia and 3 for Finland. Germany and Argentina dominate in soccer, New Zealand and Australia dominate in Rugby and Canada and Russia dominate the Senior (Top level) hockey world. It is nice the see a USA claim bragging rights somewhere in an international tournament. The USA have the most extensive and biggest Junior program.

            The CONCACAF U-17 Championship will be held in Panama this year. It is always fun to keep a tab on a team that represents the USA in another country. This young team will battle the 5 nations from the Caribbean and 4 Central American countries in Panama City and LA Chorrera, Panama. The soccer is poor with 16 year olds but the tournament is fun.   

June 8^th & 11^th                                    FIFA World Cup Qualification

USMNT v Trinidad & Tobago                                                                                                                   USMNT @ Mexico

Rugby Qualification for 2019 World Cup: The summer will have 2 massively important Rugby matches against Canada. The winner will qualify directly to 2019 Rugby World Cup. The loser will find qualifying much more difficult. It may be better if the USA Eagles lose to Canada and get valuable quality games to develop their young squad. But the warning is I believe better teams are waiting for the loser. Round 2 will have the loser of Canada\USA play the winner of the South American Champion (Brazil, Chile, Uruguay or Paraguay.) Sure all these teams are lower ranked Rugby is improving rabidly in South America. A quality team will emerge from this South American winner to Challenge USA\Canada loser. The loser of this game goes the extremely competitive 4 nation Repechage competition. Which will be a European (Spain, Romania, or Russia) and Oceanic (Tonga or Samoa) and the African Runner up participant like (Namibia, Kenya, and Zimbabwe). I want to see more USA Rugby so I hope the USA participate in this repechage competition and make the World Cup that way. This will give my Eagles more quality games and I get to watch more of them.

July

            The CONCACAF Gold Cup 2017 is probably the biggest USA international competition of the year. It will be held in July 9^th-30^th in the middle of summer. The USA gets to host this event because it is CONCACAF big money maker. Mexico fans outnumber the USA’s but we have a very strong supporters group. The venues are always great to debate so look for 6 Soccer specific stadiums again to make the games intimate. Mexico has dominated this region in soccer winning 10 Championships compared to 5 for the USA, 3 for Costa Rica and 2 for Canada. The USA will have a new coach in Bruce Arena who just replaced Klinsmann. It will be interesting how he views this tournament in the middle of WCQ.

 August 29^th-Sept 10th

World Rugby U-20 Trophy is at end of summer in August. It is hosted by Uruguay. This is considered the B tournament not the top U-20 Rugby Championship. This is the level of USA U-20 Rugby at this time. The placed 5^th in 2016, did not qualify against Canada in 2015. 3^rd in 2014, play in the Top completion in 2013 and won this B tournament when they hosted in 2012. The USA U-20 have not yet qualified and I do not know when they play Canada to qualify for this.

September 1^st and 5^th                        FIFA World Cup Qualification

USMNT v. Costa Rica  
  Sept 5^th @ Honduras

October 6^th and 10^th              FIFA World Cup Qualification

            USMNT v Panama  & 
            USMNT @ Trinidad and Tobago

October 8^th -16^th          World Rugby Americas –Pacific Challenge                                                          

The 2016 World Rugby Americas Pacific Challenge is a tournament created by World Rugby for national 'A' teams to develop home grown talent for their national test sides. The tournament replaced the previous format of the Americas Rugby Championship,  For the Pacific nations it provided a chance to play outside of the newly formatted World Rugby Pacific Challenge which was reduced to just the Pacific nations. For Canada and the United States, the tournament ensured continued competition against Fiji and Samoa, with the 2016 World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup not involving the North Americans nations.

Oct 26^th - Dec 2^nd

Rugby League World Cup (New Zealand, Australia, Papa New Guinea) is the last big international tournament for any USA team. This World cup is held every 4 years. The USA is ranked 10^th (as of November 23, 2016) which is higher than the Rugby Union ranking of 17^th.  USA finds itself in Group D with Fiji and Italy. Italy beat Serbia 62-14 and then lost a close one against powerful Wales 14-20. This got them to a play-off against Russia. They beat Russia 76-0. Fiji is good at every game of Rugby and Rugby League is not different. The USA will have to be ready.  The top team from this group advances to the knockout round. Advancing to the knockout will be a great accomplishment. 

IIHF U-20 Championship preview

            IIHF U-20 Championship                       Dec 26^th – Jan 5^th

                The IIHF U-20 Championship is one of the top competitions that all Canadians look forward to at the beginning of each year. This tournament has been dominated by Canada (16 Titles) and Russia (13 Titles).  Canada and Russia has medaled 14 out of the last 17 years. Finland 7, Sweden 6 and the USA 6. Czech Republic has 2 metals during this time. However in the last 6 years USA, Finland and Sweden have matched the top two powers in developing their own home grown players. The proof is in the results. The last 6 tournaments USA has won 2 Championships, Finland 2 while Sweden, Russia and Canada each also won the Championship. It doesn’t seem to matter where the tournament is, it is difficult for the host nation to win.

                The Juniors is where we can see the future NHL stars emerge. Last year for example there were a few undrafted players that became the top picks in the NHL draft. Auston Matthews

Austin Matthews #34 was the #1 pick in the 2016 draft

played for the USA and was the consensus #1 pick in the Draft. He got a lot of press and attention which was great for USA hockey and the tournament. Patrik Lane, Jesse Puljujarvi and Olli Juolevi all played for the Finland Championship team and were drafter 2^nd , 4^th  and  5^th overall. Finland had to beat Canada in the opening round, arch-rivals Sweden in the Semi-Finals and mighty Russia in the Finals. These 3 made it happen for Finland and their fans came out in droves to support their young hero’s. Finland also set the European attendance record with 214, 226.  The previous European attendance record was set by Sweden in 2014 with 144,268. This was a 69,958 (48.49%) increase in attendance. You can bet your boots that Finland was delighted not only to beat their Scandinavian cousins on the ice but also in attendance.

Attendance and Future hosting

Year	Host	Attendance
2000	Sweden	41,693
2001	Russia	82,400
2002	Czech Republic	110,828
2003	Canada	241,594
2004	Finland	100,551
2005	United States	193,256
2006	Canada	325,138
2007	Sweden	63,493
2008	Czech Republic	103,179
2009	Canada	453,282
2010	Canada	301,944
2011	United States	329,687
2012	Canada	455,342
2013	Russia	110,175
2014	Sweden	144,268
2015	Canada	366,370
2016	Finland	214,226
2017	Canada	-
2018	United States	-

       The interest and popularity in Canada is so enormous that Canada will be hosting almost every other year since 2006. The IIHF votes this way because of a profit sharing agreement with Hockey Canada. Canadian’s follow their national team like Mexican’s follow their national soccer teams (senior and youth level). So whenever you ask “why does a particular country get to host more tournaments?” just follow the money. Canada has 4 times the attendance as the other European countries on average. Once profits are made hosting rotations take a back seat.           
          So where does this leave the USA with hosting this event. The USA has the second best attendance behind Canada. The USA attendance was about 3 times that of their European counterparts. USA Hockey is also getting more press the more competative they are with Canada.
 The USA will next host in 2018 which is a 7 year wait; since Canada will have hosted 3 of those 7 years, Hockey USA will take it. If the USA can beat Canada’s record of 453,282 set in 2009 then the IIHF is take another look at the hosting and the rotation. I would like to see  other cities like Boston, NY or Chicago host this exciting event.

USA Outlook

                The outlook for the USA is always good. The have the biggest and best youth program of all the countries. In January 2009, the organization launched the American Development Model, which - for the first time ever - provided associations nationwide with a blueprint for optimal athlete development. The USA has dominated the IIHF U-18 Championship and some of these USA players play in the U-20 Championship. Russia has now modeled their youth development program modeled after the USA.

                The USA, Canada, Finland and Sweden played in a little warm up tournament this summer. USA beat Sweden 4-3, lost to Finland and beat Canada 5-1. The USA was fast skating and played hard and their new coach was very pleased. These games have a very close margin of error that could sink your team in the knockout rounds.  

                The last 3 tournaments Russia knocked the USA out each time; once in the semifinals last year, the quarterfinals in 2015 (2-3) and again the quarterfinals 5-3 in 2014. These games could have gone either but the USA has to find a way to get past Russia. 

              The format changed in 2014 from 6 nations in the knockout round to 8 and this was a good idea. The bottom seeds were always game ready and the top seeds were getting knocked out. Now The teams are seeded 1 through 4 and they are crossover games so you play other teams from the other group in the opening round. It is important to get a high seed but not critical. You want to avoid one of the big 5 nations in the opening round; since it will be all that much more difficult to win the Gold.